رد: واجب الدكتور خالد سيد تحليل كمي
هذا جواب سؤال 3
ANS:
FORECASTING WITH MOVING AVERAGES
*
THE MOVING AVERAGE USES 3 TIME PERIODS
Time Period Actual Value Forecast Forecast Error
1
2
3
4 265 278.33 −13.33
5 314 254.00 60.00
6 323 285.67 37.33
7 299 300.67 −1.67
8 259 312.00 −53.00
9 287 293.67 −6.67
10 302 281.67 20.33
THE FORECAST FOR PERIOD 11 282.67
وهذا جواب سؤال 4
ANS:
FORECASTING WITH EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
THE SMOOTHING CONSTANT IS 0.2
Time Period Actual Value Forecast Forecast Error
1
2 46 58.00 −12.00
3 55 55.60 −0.60
4 39 55.48 −16.48
5 42 52.18 −10.18
6 63 50.15 12.85
7 54 52.72 1.28
8 55 52.97 2.03
9 61 53.38 7.62
10 52 54.90 −2.90
THE MEAN SQUARE ERROR 84.12
THE FORECAST FOR PERIOD 11 54.32
FORECASTING WITH EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING
THE SMOOTHING CONSTANT IS 0.8
Time Period Actual Value Forecast Forecast Error
1
2 46 58.00 −12.00
3 55 48.40 6.60
4 39 53.68 −14.68
5 42 41.94 0.06
6 63 41.99 21.01
7 54 58.80 −4.80
8 55 54.96 0.04
9 61 54.99 6.01
10 52 59.80 −7.80
THE MEAN SQUARE ERROR 107.17
THE FORECAST FOR PERIOD 11 53.56
Based on MSE, smoothing with α = .2 provides a better model.
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الجواب تلاقونه في التست بانك شابتر 15 سؤال رقم (1 و 5)
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